In a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)- World Economic Outlook (WEO), Bangladesh will beat India in terms of per capita GDP in 2020 owing to a steep compression in the economy as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and the economic lockdown. 

Bangladesh’s per capita GDP is likely to expand 4 per cent in 2020. Meanwhile, India’s per capita GDP is expected to slump 10.5 per cent which is the lowest in the last four years. If we are to go by estimate, India would be the third poorest nation in South Asia, with only Pakistan and Nepal reporting lower per capita GDP, whereas Bhutan, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Sri Lanka would outpace India.

The Indian economy will be the hardest-hit from the coronavirus pandemic in South Asia after Sri Lanka, whose per capita GDP is likely to contract 4 per cent in 2020, as per the WEO database. However, the international organisation has forecast a sharp economic recovery in India next year, which is expected to push the country’s per capita GDP ahead of Bangladesh in 2021 by a small margin.

It is to be noted that over the last five years, Bangladesh’s per capita GDP has increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1 per cent. Its economic growth has been supported by a rapidly growing export sector and stable growth in the savings and investment rate of the country.