The United States warned on Tuesday, in a clear escalation of tensions over Ukraine, that Russia could attack Ukraine at any time. Despite describing the situation as “extremely dangerous,” Washington maintained diplomatic relations with Moscow, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaking with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, and both leaders agreeing to meet in Geneva this week.

Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for inciting the crisis by amassing 100,000 Russian troops along Ukraine’s border. “This includes moving Russian forces into Belarus recently for joint exercises and conducting additional exercises on Ukraine’s eastern borders,” she added. Let’s be clear about something. This, in our opinion, is a very dangerous situation. We’ve arrived at a point where Russia could attack Ukraine at any time… That’s a lot more direct than we’ve been.”

Psaki reiterated the US position that if Russia does not follow the diplomatic path, it will face “severe consequences.”

Blinken will first travel to Ukraine, where he will emphasise “US support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” according to a senior State Department official. Blinken will then travel to Germany, where he will continue intensive consultations with European allies and partners “as part of our unified response to Russia’s actions,” according to the same official.

He will meet with Lavrov in Geneva on Friday. “The United States does not want conflict,” the senior official said. We want to live in peace. President Putin has the ability to de-escalate the crisis, allowing the US and Russia to pursue a relationship that is not based on hostility or crisis.”

US officials have increased their warnings about Russian actions in recent weeks. Recent bilateral talks in Geneva, NATO-Russia talks in Brussels, and talks in Vienna under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) – of which both the US and Russia are members – all failed to break the deadlock.

The movement of Russian troops into Belarus is the most recent source of tension. “Reports of Russian troop movements towards Belarus, which are allegedly under the auspices of regularly scheduled joint military exercises, are concerning,” a second senior state department official said. The timing is significant, and it raises fears that Russia may be planning to station troops in Belarus under the guise of joint military exercises in order to attack Ukraine from the north.”

Belarus’s upcoming constitutional changes, according to the official, will include “language that could be interpreted as paving the way for Russia to garrison forces on Belarusian territory,” implying that Belarus intends to “allow Russian conventional and nuclear forces” to station themselves on its soil. The official went on to say that the issue was more about capabilities than Kremlin intent. “What it represents is an increase in Russia’s capability to launch this attack, as well as increased opportunity, avenues, and routes.”

The US was concerned, according to the first official, that Russia was preparing a pretext for an invasion. “This idea that Russia is laying the groundwork to be able to fabricate a pretext for invasion – whether through sabotage activities, information operations, or troop movements – is something we’re keeping a close eye on.” “Russian military plans to begin activities several weeks before a military invasion are something we have been watching closely,” the official said, adding that “our assessment has been that that could happen anytime between mid-January and mid-February.”

While the Pentagon reiterated that the Russians have shown no signs of de-escalation, it was more cautious about Putin’s ultimate goal. “It would be difficult for us to say with specificity and certainty what we know Mr. Putin is driving at here,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters. He’s clearly establishing a force posture there that gives him a variety of options. It’s just difficult to say what options he’ll choose right now, and we don’t believe he’s made a final decision.”

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