In a campaining at Kolkata, West Bengal Prime Minister Narendra Modi says, “You gave her an opportunity to work for 10 years? Now give us a chance”. The woman in question is Mamata Banerjee, the firebrand leader of Trinamool Congress (TMC), a regional party that has been ruling the state for a decade.
Now Mr Modi, a folksy orator, slips into thickly accented Bengali, much of the amusement of many in the crowd. He launches into a broadside against Ms Banerjee, who is better known in Bengal as “didi”, a moniker invented by her supporters. But the land of Bengal doesn’t regard anyone as an outsider, says Mr Modi.
Ms Banerjee has framed the challenge from Mr Modi’s Hindu nationalist as one between the insiders (Bengalis) and the outsiders (the largely Hindi-speaking BJP, which runs the federal government). The 66-year-old leader is tapping into, at once, nativist and federalist sentiments. The “othering” of a powerful federal party is grounded in India’s contested politics of federalism. Ms Banerjee has also accused the Hindu nationalist party of trying to bring “narrow, discriminatory and divisive politics in Bengal”. Rhetoric aside, the battle for West Bengal – where voting is staggered over eight phases and four weeks – promises to be intense. It is also the most significant state election in India in recent years.
The feisty Ms Banerjee stormed to power in 2011 after dislodging a Communist-led government that ruled the state for 34 years. Since then she has ruled without a break, and her party currently holds 211 of 295 seats in the outgoing state assembly. The TMC is a loosely structured, and not a particularly disciplined party. It has no ideological underpinnings. Like most of India’s regional parties, it relies on the cult of personality of a charismatic leader, whose supporters also call her the “fire goddess”.
In its bid to grow exponentially and take on Ms Banerjee, the BJP has poached freely from its rivals in West Bengal. More than 45 of the 282 candidates it has put up in the polls are defectors. Thirty four of them are from Ms Banerjee’s party alone, mostly disgruntled local leaders who have been refused tickets. The BJP’s organisation remains creaky, and it lacks a compelling local leader to take on Ms Banerjee. Many say the party doesn’t have a cohesive narrative, beyond the criticism of the TMC, and promises of a “golden Bengal”. It is, they reckon, mostly drawing on support from voters angry with the TMC, including those belonging to a clutch of lower castes.
Despite the ailing Communists stitching up an alliance with a Muslim cleric and the enfeebled Congress to swing votes away from the main contestants, the battle for West Bengal is singularly bipolar. To win the state, a party has to pick up 45% of the popular votes in such a contest.
Most believe it will be a closely fought election. Even “didi”, the protective elder sister, has been forced into a change of image. Kolkata’s skyline is emblazoned with billboards of Ms Banerjee’s smiling face, describing her as “Banglar meye” or daughter of Bengal. It’s an appeal from a woman who says she is under siege from outsiders.